Ted Cruz might beat the odds in Illinois on March 15, according to a poll conducted by CBS News. The poll puts him only four points behind Donald Trump in the race.
Without question, Democrats have given Trump his lead in the Republican race.
There have been fourteen open primaries so far—contests in which Democrats and/or Independents are allowed to vote for the Republican presidential nominee. Trump has won eleven of these races. Marco Rubio has won two, Minnesota and Puerto Rico. Cruz has won only one, his native Texas.
Three of the March 15 Republican races are open to Democratic voters: Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio. Ohio is are winner-take-all in terms of the delegates awarded. Illinois and Missouri award partly delegate by Congressional district and partially statewide. Missouri becomes winner-take-all if a candidate takes over half the votes.
In North Carolina, Independents—but not Democrats—can vote for the Republican nominee. Its delegates will be apportioned proportionately. Trump may win a plurality there, but a majority of North Carolina’s 72 delegates will go to other candidates.
Trump appears to be beating Rubio, in his home state of Florida. John Kasich is barely ahead in his native Ohio. Missouri is anyone’s guess.
If Cruz can triumph in Illinois, his victory would be considered a huge upset and a repudiation of Trump’s divisive political style. It would indicate that Cruz can win even when Democrats can cross party lines to vote for Trump. Pundits would argue that Trump has peaked and will soon wane.
Marco Rubio will have to bow out once he loses Florida. He has made his attitude about Trump quite clear. A Ben Carson-type endorsement of Trump would be impossible for him. Kasich refused to help Rubio in Florida when he needed it most. There is only one direction for Rubio to go—to back Cruz for the nomination. Even if he fails to enter the Cruz fold, he will no longer be splitting the anti-Trump vote.
So there is hope for the Cruz camp even if he fails to take a single state on March 15. Few open primaries remain. It’s still a long way to the magic number of 1237 delegates. A lot of the remaining races are winner-take-all.
Let’s see what happens when Cruz faces Trump where only Republicans can vote.
