Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is angling to be the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention, generated nationwide publicity this week by banning official travel to North Carolina. The action came in response to a new North Carolina law that restricts the use of gendered bathrooms to the respective sexes according to their biological origin.

The travel ban for North Carolina is not a new tactic for Cuomo. Cuomo also ban non-essential travel by New York State employees to Indiana last year.

The action against Indiana came when the Hoosier State failed to enact proposed legislation that would have added sexual orientation to the state’s anti-discrimination rights list. The proposal failed to come to a vote after Republican and Democratic State Senators could not come to a compromise on whether transgendered individuals would be covered by the bill.

The bans are largely symbolic, because New York state employee travel to North Carolina and Indiana is practically non-existent anyway.

Contrast these bans to efforts by Cuomo to promote public travel to Cuba, a repressive communist dictatorship that has jailed untold numbers of political dissidents.  Last May, he announced air service to Cuba from New York City in conjunction with JetBlue Airline. Cuomo also meet with Raul Castro last year in an effort to promote trade with Cuba.

So Cuomo encourages travel to Cuba, where the government harasses, imprisons, and tortures transgendered people, but bans official travel to Indiana and North Carolina.

What’s next? Banning New York State travel to Orlando because there is no transgender version of Mickey Mouse? Or will it be Cuomo overtures to North Korea?

Does anyone remember Ted Cruz decrying New York values? This is the reason why.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-bans-non-essential-state-travel-indiana

Consider this not unlikely scenario regarding Merrick Garland, President Obama’s nominee for the vacant seat on the Supreme Court.

1. Donald Trump wins the Republicans nomination for President.
2. Trump gets defeated by Hillary Clinton in November. Nearly all polls indicate that Trump would lose such a head-to-head battle, and by a wide margin.
3. Republicans may also lose control of the Senate in the process. More Republicans face strong challenges than Democrats for Senate seats this fall. Republican seats may turn Democrat in in several states, including Illinois, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin. In addition, Republicans may lose Marco Rubio’s former seat in Florida.
4. Republicans confirm Garland in a lame duck session.

Obama picked Garland, a moderate as Democrats go, to make political hay over the Republican’s refusal to consider him or any other Obama nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy.

If Republicans do not confirm Garland in the wake of a Trump defeat, President Hillary Clinton would certainly pick a more liberal judge in his place.

Some conservatives argue that confirmation hearings should begin in any case. George Will asks the entirely reasonable question, “What makes you think that Trump would name a better justice?” No one really knows what Trump would do if he becomes President, including Trump.

Republicans are already laying the groundwork for a reversal of their refusal to consider the nomination.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is arguing that the Senate should not confirm a Supreme Court nominee until the people have spoken about the direction the country should take. Senator Mark Kirk (R-Illinois), facing an uphill battle to hold onto his office, has already called on Republicans to “man up” and consider the nomination.

In November, the people will have spoken. It would be a short step to confirm Garland soon afterward. Obama has stated that he will not withdraw Garland’s name from consideration no matter who wins in November. And let the Democrats argue against confirming Obama’s pick after they have harangued the Republicans to act for eight months.

Perhaps, as the election nears and Trump’s defeat is all but assured, the Senate majority will reverse its position and begin hearings on Obama’s nominee to ease confirmation process during the lame duck session.

Would anyone really be surprised?

Ted Cruz might beat the odds in Illinois on March 15, according to a poll conducted by CBS News. The poll puts him only four points behind Donald Trump in the race.

Without question, Democrats have given Trump his lead in the Republican race.

There have been fourteen open primaries so far—contests in which Democrats and/or Independents are allowed to vote for the Republican presidential nominee. Trump has won eleven of these races. Marco Rubio has won two, Minnesota and Puerto Rico. Cruz has won only one, his native Texas.

Three of the March 15 Republican races are open to Democratic voters: Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio. Ohio is are winner-take-all in terms of the delegates awarded. Illinois and Missouri award partly delegate by Congressional district and partially statewide. Missouri becomes winner-take-all if a candidate takes over half the votes.

In North Carolina, Independents—but not Democrats—can vote for the Republican nominee. Its delegates will be apportioned proportionately. Trump may win a plurality there, but a majority of North Carolina’s 72 delegates will go to other candidates.

Trump appears to be beating Rubio, in his home state of Florida. John Kasich is barely ahead in his native Ohio. Missouri is anyone’s guess.

If Cruz can triumph in Illinois, his victory would be considered a huge upset and a repudiation of Trump’s divisive political style. It would indicate that Cruz can win even when Democrats can cross party lines to vote for Trump. Pundits would argue that Trump has peaked and will soon wane.

Marco Rubio will have to bow out once he loses Florida. He has made his attitude about Trump quite clear. A Ben Carson-type endorsement of Trump would be impossible for him. Kasich refused to help Rubio in Florida when he needed it most. There is only one direction for Rubio to go—to back Cruz for the nomination. Even if he fails to enter the Cruz fold, he will no longer be splitting the anti-Trump vote.

So there is hope for the Cruz camp even if he fails to take a single state on March 15. Few open primaries remain. It’s still a long way to the magic number of 1237 delegates. A lot of the remaining races are winner-take-all.

Let’s see what happens when Cruz faces Trump where only Republicans can vote.

Ted Cruz may have a tough day on March 15.

Five states are in play: Florida (99 delegates), Illinois (69), Missouri (52), North Carolina (72) and Ohio (62).

There have been fourteen open primaries so far—contests in which Democrats and/or Independents are allowed to vote for the Republican presidential nominee. Donald Trump has won eleven of these races. Marco Rubio has won two, Minnesota and Puerto Rico. Cruz has won only one, his native Texas.

Without question, Democrats have given Trump his lead in the Republican race.

Three of the Republican races are open to Democratic voters on March 15: Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio.

North Carolina is unique that day. Its primary is considered to be a hybrid of open and closed primaries. Independents, but not Democrats, can vote for the Republican nominee. Its delegates will be apportioned to the candidates proportionately according to the votes received.

Everyone is focusing on Florida, Rubio’s home state, and Ohio, where John Kasich appears to be ahead. Florida, a closed primary, is winner-take-all. Rubio appears to be losing there, but Michigan proved the inaccuracy of primary polling.

Let’s not forget Illinois, where the Chicago Tribune projects Trump to be the winner. Missouri is anyone’s guess.  A Cruz win there would have to be considered an upset given Trump’s record in open primary states.

But even if Trump sweeps every state but Ohio on March 15, there is hope for the Cruz camp. Few open primaries remain. Marco Rubio would have to bow out.

Then let’s see what happens when Trump faces Cruz where only Republicans can vote. A lot of the remaining primaries are winner-take-all. It’s a long way to the magic number of 1237 delegates. California, with 172 winner-take-all delegates, may be the key race.

As Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over til it’s over.”

No one seems to notice that Democratic voters have been key to Donald Trump’s success in the Republican primaries so far.

How?  Trump has mostly won in open primaries—that is, Primaries that allow Democrats to cross party lines and vote for the Republican candidate. To date, Trump has won in 10 of the 15 decided states.  Eight of Trump’s ten victories were in open primary states: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia.

Trump also won in New Hampshire, a hybrid state where independents can vote in the Republican primary. His other victory came in Nevada—basically a home state.

That’s a lot less impressive than the media pundits would have you believe.

One analyst argues that, if not for the Democratic crossover voters, Trump would have lost South Carolina’s 50 winner-take-all votes to Ted Cruz. Switch those delegates to Cruz, and Cruz would be beating Trump 276 to 269 right now.

A similar case could be made in Virginia, where Trump beat Marco Rubio by only 29,000 of over a million votes cast. The Republican Party Chairman bragged that his party “blew the Democrats’ turnout out of the water” in a Washington Post article. He’s right. The Democratic turnout dropped by one-fifth.  It’s pretty easy to guess where those Democrats went. Many of them crossed over to the Republican primary and voted for Trump. I wouldn’t be bragging about that if I were the Virginia Republican State Chair.

Trump’s supporters may argue that attracting Democrats shows cross-party support for the general election. Maybe. If so, it only demonstrates the Democrats perceive what many Republicans do not–that Trump is not a true conservative. Cruz and Rubio have argued that point all along.

Nevertheless, polls show that Hillary Clinton would crush Trump if the general election were held today. There can be only one conclusion. Many Democratic voters, confident that Bernie Sander’s threat is kaput, are throwing their weight behind Donald Trump to sabotage Republican chances in November.

The bad news for Trump is that only seven open primaries remain among the 35 remaining contests: Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. The good news for him is that Missouri, Montana and Wisconsin are winner-take all rather than proportional states, an important consideration.

Two key remaining states are hybrids of open and closed primaries. In North Carolina, independents may vote in the Republican primary, but Democrats can’t. In Ohio, voters may change their party affiliation on Election Day. Allegations of foul play will abound.

The primaries on March 5 will be an indicator of Trump’s true strength absent Democratic support.  All four contests are closed primaries or caucuses. Polls show that Trump is ahead in Louisiana, the biggest prize of the day with 47 delegates.. Kentucky, nearly as large with 45 caucus delegates—and holding its first-ever caucus—is an unknown. Trump has been invisible in Kansas, another medium-sized state with 40 caucus votes. Trump chose Maine, with only 23 caucus delegates, for his response to Mitt Romney.  He’s likely to win there.

Today is an important day for Trump. Let’s see if he can show real strength among real Republicans without crossover Democrats padding the ballots.